Statistical model for factors correlating with COVID-19 deaths.

Background: The COVID-19 pandemic has caused major disruption in societies globally. Our aim is to understand, what factors were associated with the impact of the pandemic on death rates. This will help countries to better prepare for and respond in future pandemics. Methods: We modeled with a linear mixed effect model the impact of COVID-19 with the dependent variable "Daily mortality change" (DMC) with country features variables and intervention (containment measurement) data. We tested both country characteristics consisting of demographic, societal, health related, healthcare system specific, environmental and cultural feature as well as COVID-19 specific response in the form of social distancing interventions. Results: A statistically significant country feature was Geert Hofstede's masculinity, i.e., the extent to which the use of force is endorsed socially, correlating positively with a higher DMC. The effects of different interventions were stronger that those of country features, particularly cancelling public events, controlling international travel and closing workplaces. Conclusion: Social distancing interventions and the country feature: Geert Hofstede's masculinity dimension had a significant impact on COVID-19 mortality change. However other country features, such as development and population health did not show significance. Thus, the crises responders and scholars could revisit the concept and understanding of preparedness for and response to pandemics.

Are preparedness indices reflective of pandemic preparedness? A COVID-19 reality check.

The paper contributes to the body of knowledge working towards enhancing the understanding of crisis and disaster preparedness and effective response, via the lens of the ongoing global pandemic and responding to the questions: do the current measures for pandemic preparedness reflect preparedness adequately, and what does pandemic preparedness mean? We analysed how the reported cumulative mortality rates, during the spring of 2020 and in the 60 days after the date of a country's first COVID-19 related death, compared to the expected preparedness rank according to the existing global preparedness indices (IHR and GHSI) on a country level. We found, at country level, that the health-related outcomes from the first wave of the pandemic were primarily negatively correlated with the expected preparedness. We contend that our results indicate a need to investigate further development and enhancement of the preparedness indices.